Gusty winds and very dry conditions will persist through this afternoon before a more significant weather pattern change brings a chance of thunderstorms Friday night through Saturday, with the potential for heavy rain, flash flooding on burn scars, and a brief return to seasonal temperatures before another intense heat wave builds next week.
T-storms could bring mountain downpours Saturday morning in Scott Dorval's video forecast
Today has been breezy and about 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday behind a weak dry cold front that passed through overnight. Winds will die down this evening with overnight lows dropping about 10 degrees cooler than last night. Thursday will be much like today, but high clouds will spread over southeast Oregon Thursday afternoon as an upper trough gradually takes shape off the California coast.
More moisture will spread into southeast Oregon from the California Sierra Nevada on Friday as the upper trough becomes better defined. A 20 to 40 percent chance of thunderstorms will reach southern Harney County Friday afternoon, then expand eastward along the Nevada-Idaho border Friday night. Storms Friday night and Saturday morning could produce strong outflow winds, while storms later Saturday may bring heavy rain, especially over higher terrain in Idaho.
A shortwave trough will dig across the area on Saturday, bringing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. The best chance for thunderstorms (30 to 60 percent) will be over the higher terrain of southwest and west-central Idaho. With precipitable water approaching the 80th to 90th percentile, the strongest storms could produce heavy rain in addition to small hail and gusty winds. Burn scars, including the Wapiti Burn Scar over the central Idaho mountains, will need to be monitored for flash flood potential.
The weekend system will bring a slight cooling trend, dropping high temperatures back down to seasonal normals. However, a ridge of high pressure will build back over the region early next week, leading to a return of dry conditions and a steady warming trend through midweek. Tuesday and Wednesday will potentially see temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal, with highs approaching 100 degrees.
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 54. Northwest wind 9 to 14 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph.
Thursday
Increasing clouds, with a high near 89. Light and variable wind becoming west northwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 58. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Juneteenth
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 96. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. West northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south southeast after midnight.
Saturday
A 20 percent chance of showers before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 88.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Sunday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 90.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 56.
Monday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 94.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 58.
Tuesday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 100.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 63.
Wednesday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 99.
