Dry cold front brings gusty winds Tuesday before a wet and stormy weekend arrives across the region
Unseasonably mild weather continues despite Tuesday's cold front. Check out my video forecast
Above-normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday before a dry cold front brings gusty winds and elevated fire danger, setting the stage for a much wetter and stormier pattern by the weekend.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening across east-central Oregon and west-central Idaho, but the most significant weather changes will arrive later in the week.
Dry cold front and gusty winds Tuesday
On Tuesday, a storm system moving east across southern Canada will push a dry cold front through the area. While this front lacks significant moisture, it will create a tighter pressure gradient across the region. Northwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph will develop in the afternoon and evening, with stronger gusts possible along ridgelines.
These breezy winds, combined with lowering relative humidity, will result in increased fire danger across portions of southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. Weak instability ahead of and along the front will also support a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, focused mainly along the Idaho and Nevada border during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures on Tuesday will be slightly cooler in the north, while southern areas remain warm until the front passes.
Midweek cooldown
By Wednesday, temperatures will cool 5 to 10 degrees as the system exits to the east and winds shift to the northwest. Winds will begin to subside but remain breezy in the afternoon with gusts of 15 to 25 mph. Moisture ahead of an approaching low-pressure system off the California coast will bring a 20 percent chance of showers to the Oregon and Nevada border late Wednesday.
Moisture returns late week
A warm and active pattern will arrive by Thursday and Friday. The area will be caught between the main jet stream to the north and a closed low-pressure system off the coast of California. Southerly winds associated with this system will keep temperatures near 10 degrees above normal.
As the California system slowly moves east, Pacific moisture will allow for increasing chances of precipitation. By Thursday afternoon, precipitation chances will increase to 15 to 35 percent near the Idaho and Nevada border and southeast Oregon. By Friday afternoon, precipitation chances increase to 30 to 70 percent nearly area-wide, with a 10 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms.
Active and stormy weekend ahead
Saturday appears to be the most active day of the week. As the low-pressure system continues to move inland, abundant moisture will surge into the area. Precipitation chances will increase to 40 to 75 percent area-wide. This pattern is highly supportive of thunderstorms, and there is a 15 to 20 percent chance of thunder Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures will cool down to near normal by Sunday as the system makes its way over the area. Precipitation chances will remain elevated at 40 to 75 percent through Sunday. Snow levels will remain very high at 8,000 feet and above through the weekend, eventually dropping to 4,500 to 6,500 feet by Monday.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Light wind.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 74. Light morning wind becoming breezy (NW) later in the day with gutst to 25 mph
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 40. NW wind 5 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph in the evening.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. wind NW 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. Diminishing breeze.
Thursday
Sunny & pleasant, with a high near 73.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 46.
Friday
A 20 percent chance of showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 73.
Friday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Saturday
A 50 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 72.
Saturday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.
Sunday
A 50 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 61.
Sunday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39.
Monday
A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 59.
