NAMPA, Idaho — Idaho's family farms are facing a perfect storm of challenges that could accelerate the shift toward corporate agriculture, as small producers struggle with record-high input costs, supply chain disruptions and market volatility.
The harvest season has ended, and farmers like Tristan Winegar have put their fields to bed for the winter. But the next growing season brings unprecedented uncertainty for the state's agricultural community.
"It's tough times right now. I think it's worse than anyone planned for or imagined," Winegar said.
Winegar, whose family has farmed for generations, has about 1,000 acres in Wilder, says he's confident he can weather the current challenges. However, farm experts warn that not all small operations will survive.
"How much danger in the short term are a lot of these little farms? I think there is quite a bit of danger," said Brett Wilder, a farm business management expert from the University of Idaho.
The cost of essential farming inputs like pesticides and fertilizer has reached near-record highs due to supply chain issues that trace back to the Coronavirus pandemic.
"You know what this is? It's long COVID. The ag industry has a really bad case of long COVID. That's when we took the really big step up in input costs," Wilder said.
Adding to farmers' challenges, ranchers worldwide are processing much of their herds to capitalize on sky-high beef prices. With fewer cattle in the system, there's reduced demand for forage crops that many farmers produce.
"We're just in a really bad supply glut of all these things I call the cattle feeding sector," Wilder said.
Trade policy uncertainty has also created additional headaches for farmers. Wilder points to tariff disputes that have targeted fertilizer and pesticide producers, including those in Canada, as contributing to market instability.
"What has changed is the ability for someone to come in and make an agreement and have confidence that agreement is going to hold with no changes in six months' time," Wilder said.
"We have a situation where we potentially have caused long-term disturbances to our ability to negotiate with countries as a whole," he added.
Winegar, however, doesn't place blame on current trade policies, expressing optimism about future agricultural policy.
"Something needed to change because honestly before our new president, things were in a bad way anyway," Winegar said. "I believe our government and presidency will pull through for us and it will be better on the outgoing than coming into it. There's going to be some growing pains."
As costs remain elevated, farmers must find ways to innovate and increase efficiency. Winegar has embraced sustainable practices, using large amounts of compost and no-till farming methods to boost crop yields with notable success.
But farmers without the expertise or willingness to adapt may find themselves replacing their crops with for-sale signs, potentially accelerating Idaho's shift toward larger corporate agricultural operations.
