Southern Idaho will see another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly across higher terrain near the Nevada border. While most valley locations will stay dry, some storms could produce gusty outflow winds between 40 and 60 mph, along with brief heavy rain and small hail.
As storms develop over the mountains, they will move northeast and gradually weaken. Even if storms don't make it into the Treasure or Magic Valleys, strong outflow winds could still reach those areas late this afternoon and evening. There is a small chance that a few storms hold together long enough to move into the valleys.
The National Weather Service has placed a red flag warning in effect for SE Idaho from 2 p.m. to 9 p.m. this evening. Avoid outdoor burning as the hot, dry weather continues to raise concerns about wildfires.
Temperatures continue to climb today, with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s across lower elevations. Mountain communities will see highs mainly in the 80s and low 90s. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will remain fairly light.
By Wednesday, moisture begins shifting east as an upper-level system moves into British Columbia. This will keep the best chance for thunderstorms over the mountains of southern and central Idaho, though a few storms and gusty winds could still drift into portions of the Magic Valley. A weak dry cold front arrives Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing breezier conditions and slightly cooler temperatures. Wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph will be possible Thursday, and combined with low humidity, fire weather concerns will increase.
Looking ahead to the weekend, a strong ridge of high pressure will build across the western United States, bringing hotter temperatures back to the region. Highs in the valleys will climb into the upper 90s and could approach 100 degrees by early next week. While the hottest air is expected to stay east of Idaho for now, even a small shift in the weather pattern could send temperatures above 100 degrees.
By Monday and Tuesday, monsoonal moisture may begin moving northward again, bringing another chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Until then, expect plenty of sunshine, hot afternoons, and a continued warming trend across southern Idaho.
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