Good morning, Idaho! Fire weather concerns remain elevated today as gusty winds and very dry air combine across southern Idaho.
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Southern Idaho, including Mountain Home and the Magic Valley. West-to-northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph, will develop this afternoon. At the same time, humidity levels will drop into the 10 to 15 percent range across many lower elevations, creating conditions that could allow any new fire starts to spread quickly. Avoid outdoor burning, parking on grass, or anything that could ignite a fire.
Temperatures today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but it will still be warm and dry. The strongest winds are expected across the Western Snake River Plain and higher terrain, where fire weather concerns will be greatest.
Thursday brings a brief break from the wind as a weak ridge of high pressure moves overhead. Temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s and low 90s across the valleys, while humidity remains low. However, lighter winds should keep fire weather concerns lower than today.
Attention then turns to Friday and Saturday as a low-pressure system approaches from the West Coast. This system will bring increasing moisture and instability, setting the stage for showers and thunderstorms. Storms may begin developing Friday afternoon and evening, especially across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. Because the lower atmosphere will still be fairly dry initially, some storms could produce dry lightning, strong and erratic outflow winds, and areas of blowing dust. Isolated wind gusts between 50 and 60 mph will be possible with the strongest storms.
By Saturday, moisture levels increase further, allowing storms to become more efficient rain producers. While some thunderstorms may still be on the drier side, others could produce heavy downpours, small hail, and gusty winds. The highest thunderstorm chances appear to be over the mountains of southwest Idaho. Burn scars, including the Wapiti Burn Scar, will need to be monitored closely for localized flash flooding if heavy rain develops.
Cooler air arrives behind the system Sunday, bringing temperatures back closer to seasonal averages before another warming trend develops early next week.
