Happy Baby Friday!
We’re finally starting to move away from the stretch of unsettled weather, but not before one last small chance for a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The chance is low—only about 10%—and most of the Treasure Valley will stay dry. If a storm does develop, it will mainly be over the Boise Mountains or near the Idaho-Nevada border. Any storms that pop up could bring brief gusty winds up to around 25 mph and possibly some small hail.
Once we get through today, the weather improves quickly. High pressure builds in behind the departing system, which means sunshine, dry conditions, and warmer temperatures as we kick off the weekend and head into May. Highs will climb into the mid- to upper 70s across lower elevations and remain warm into the weekend, growing about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. It will feel much more like late spring, with comfortable afternoons and plenty of sunshine.
Saturday will likely be the warmest and nicest day of the stretch. If you have outdoor plans, it’s a great day to take advantage of the weather. You may notice a few more clouds moving in later in the day, but overall conditions will stay dry and mild.
By Sunday, changes begin to take shape again. A storm system developing off the West Coast —a cutoff low—will slowly move closer. As it does, it will bring in more moisture and slightly cooler air higher up in the atmosphere. That combination can help spark thunderstorms, especially by Sunday evening. The first areas to see this will likely be southern Oregon and parts of southwest Idaho, especially closer to the Nevada border.
As we head into Monday and Tuesday, that system moves inland and brings a better chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms. These storms could be stronger than what we see today, with the potential for gusty winds, small hail, and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. There will also be more moisture available in the atmosphere, which means any storm could briefly produce heavier downpours.
Like many cutoff low systems, there’s still some uncertainty in exactly how everything will play out, but overall, weather models are in pretty good agreement that early next week will be more active.
The good news is that this unsettled pattern doesn’t stick around for long. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, the system begins to move out of the area, and high pressure builds back in. That means we’ll return to warmer, drier, and more stable conditions by the middle of next week.
Treasure Valley Extended Forecast
