BOISE, Idaho — Idaho is coming off a historically warm winter season, and now forecasts are looking poor for the remainder of 2026. That is— if you are a fan of moisture and cooler temps.
Extended forecast models are now showing a strong chance of a Super El Niño developing late this summer, but what does that mean for Idaho?
El Niño is a weather phenomenon that occurs every 2-7 years when water in the Pacific near the equator is warmer than usual, causing unsettled conditions over the equator, most noticeably with thunderstorms.
This unsettled pattern pushes the Polar jet stream further north, leading to warmer and drier climates across the majority of the U.S.
The chance of an average El Niño is sitting at about 80%. Meaning after a very warm winter, Idaho could see back-to-back above-average seasonal temperatures.
Some forecasts, though, are taking it a step further and saying this next wave could be a Super El Niño, bringing historic high temperatures and dry conditions.
“There are some odds that it could be a strong El Niño, which could put it on par with some of the strongest we have ever seen,” said Jay Briedenbach, Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the National Weather Service. “The odds favor warmer than normal temperatures and a slight tilt towards drier than normal conditions.”
WATCH: Find out if a super El Niño is on the way
This is especially bad news for Idaho, as we are currently experiencing record-low snowpack. On Wednesday, the Department of Water Resources hosted a water supply meeting at the Statehouse.
There, water managers explained that 34% of Idaho is looking at severe drought before we even hit the summer months.
"In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026." - NOAA
The good news is the chance of a Super El Niño remains low.
The forecast models show a median range, and the odds of El Niño going super are slimmer than just an average version. It is still very likely for the normal pattern to occur, which would mean above-average winter temps and less precipitation.
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