As of Tuesday morning, Dorian is still a bit weaker than on Monday. It is dealing with some wind shear and some drier air that is interfering with its development.
Current computer models show the storm staying weaker in the Caribbean and not becoming a hurricane, but that may change a little bit over the next day or so.
At 8 a.m., Dorian has 50 mph winds with higher gusts and is moving moving west-northwest at about 13 mph across St. Lucia into the eastern Caribbean Sea.
This motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close to Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola.
On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the eastern and northeastern Caribbean Sea during the next few days, passing near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday. It will move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday.
Dorian's biggest challenge will still come Wednesday into early Thursday as it tracks up toward Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
The mountains of Hispaniola could shred this storm to pieces, but if it just skims the coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, then its on to the Bahamas for Dorian where it may have an opportunity to strengthen.
Current computer models show that if the storm makes it into the Bahamas, there may be a chance for it to strengthen into a strong tropical storm before impacting the east coast of Florida on Saturday night and Sunday.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:
* Puerto Rico
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Puerto Rico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OFF EAST COAST
Tropical Depression 6 formed Monday afternoon between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States.
The storm could become Tropical Storm Erin later Tuesday. It remains highly disorganized and is moving away from the United States.