MOSCOW (AP) - Russia is emerging from recession but its economy is unlikely to fully recover before 2012, Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said Wednesday.
In comments to the national parliament, Shuvalov echoed recent official statements that Russia is emerging from recession but cautioned that the recovery is going to be lengthy.
"The latest data show that a slow and cautious recovery is under way," Shuvalov said. "It may take a short time - about two years - or much more, but we proceed from the assumption that the recovery will be over by 2012."
Shuvalov warned against upbeat forecasts that the crisis is over. "No one in the government shares this view," he said.
Russia has been hit harder by the global economic downturn than most other emerging markets, in part because of its heavy dependence on oil.
Russia's gross domestic output rose by 7.4 percent in the April-June period compared to the first quarter, although it is still down 10.9 percent year-on-year.
Industrial output declined by 3 percent in August, reversing growth of the previous two months and suggesting recovery is going to be volatile.
Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said Tuesday that the third quarter would see the start of the recovery in Russia.
The government earlier announced that it would have to borrow abroad in 2010 - for the first time in a decade - to cover the budget deficit, as its reserve fund is becoming depleted.
Kudrin told the parliament on Wednesday that Russia's total debt will come to no more than 16 percent of the GDP by the end of 2012 even if Russia borrows 600 to 700 billion ($23 billion) rubles every year on domestic and foreign markets in the next three year.
"Russia has the lowest debt level among G20 nations and will be even after (borrowings in) 2012," Kudrin said in a question and answer session. "We are significantly lower than any critical debt level."
Russia's debt after the 1998 downturn exceeded 140 percent of the GDP, Kudrin said.
Kudrin earlier confirmed earlier this month to borrow about $17.8 billion on external markets to cover government spending.
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