The American Automobile Association is predicting fewer people will be traveliong this Thanksgiving holiday -- the first decline since 2002.

     "Amid the mixed signals of much lower gasoline prices and an economic meltdown marked by declines in consumer confidence and spending, families will find ways to get to grandma's place for the Thanksgiving holiday," said Dave Carlson of AAA Idaho.

     The travel organization said it expects 41 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home this holiday weekend, that's down 1.2 percent -- or 600,000 -- from a year ago, and the fourth consecutive travel holiday this year with a year-to-year decline in the number of holiday travelers.

      "There are plenty of pocketbook reasons Americans could opt not to travel this Thanksgiving, but all things considered, travel intentions are quite strong for this holiday," said Carlson. "A hot meal at grandma's house and much lower gasoline prices may be just the incentives that will keep travel numbers near to where they have been in recent years."

     Among the 41 million total travelers, 33.2 million Americans (81 percent of all holiday travelers) expect to go by automobile, a 1.2 percent decline from the 33.6 million people who drove a year ago.

     Record drops in gasoline prices mean auto travelers will pay far less at the pump this year. Idaho's average price for regular unleaded gasoline is $2.16, and the national average is $2.07. Both are about a dollar lower per gallon than a year ago and about 50 percent lower than the record highs of more than $4.00 a gallon set in July.

    A global collapse in oil prices, fueled by fears of  future economic slowdowns and diminishing driver demand, continues to drive wholesale and retail prices lower, giving motorists some relief at the pump.  In recent days, oil has traded in the mid-$50 range, well below the $70 mark that some analysts thought was a more likely settling point. 

    More than eight of every ten Americans traveling during the holiday will do so by automobile. In addition, AAA said it expects nearly 4.54 million, or 11 percent of holiday travelers, will fly this holiday. That's down 7.2 percent from the 4.89 million who flew a year ago.

     According to AAA's Leisure Travel Index, higher airfares (up about 8 percent this holiday), higher car rental fees (up four percent on average) and new fees for checked baggage by many airlines, may account for greater numbers of Americans who will opt for other travel modes. 

    For instance, AAA estimates 3.3 million will travel by bus, train or some other mode, up 5.8 percent or 180,000 from last Thanksgiving. "Though few Americans appear willing to forego travel for the holiday altogether, they show a willingness to economize wherever they can," Carlson said.

     AAA's holiday travel projections are derived from the Travel Industry Association's (TIA) Holiday Travel Forecast  Model. The model incorporates results from consumer surveys regarding travel intentions along with TIA's quarterly travel forecast data.

     The projected decline  in the number of travelers over the Thanksgiving holiday represents a continuation of fewer holiday travelers in 2008 starting with Memorial Day and continuing through three holiday periods since then.

      The West will see the biggest decline in the percentage of people driving among five geographic regions of the country. TIA officials speculate the 2.9 percent drop compared to a year ago is likely a result of difficult economic times in California and higher travel costs in the West. In addition, travel destinations involve greater travel distances for westerners.

     AAA Idaho estimates that 144,300 Idahoans will be passengers or drivers in motor vehicles traveling 50 miles or more this holiday period, down about 7,000 from a year ago.

     Nearly 58 percent of survey respondents in the U.S. said they plan to visit friends and family during the holiday. In the West, the percentage visiting family and friends is 64.4 percent.